European Conference on Intelligent Management Systems in Operations
本文提出一种新方法，通过相平面和决策前沿分析来区分局部和全局不确定性，并利用随机微分方程处理不确定性、机会和风险，以改善价值链管理中的网络关系和敏捷性。
We address uncertainty and confusion in value chain management through the use of recently developed phase plane and decision frontier analysis. The new methodology enables the distinction between the concept of local, self-inflicted, uncertainty and the concept of global, state of the world, uncertainty through phase plane mapping. We utilise the solution to a set of stochastic differential equations to encapsulate attitudes to uncertainty, opportunity and risk. One source of information on and targets for variability is through the method of dynamic acquisition which assists in generating expert forecasts. The forecast errors can be monitored to provide an innovative facility for mapping changes in variability which should enhance research and understanding of the mechanisms occurring in value chains. The method also addresses the need for improved network relationships as well as supporting enhanced agility.