THE GROWTH AFTERMATH OF NATURAL DISASTERS
追踪了干旱、洪水、地震和风暴四种自然灾害对GDP增长（总量及农业与非农业部分）的年度影响，发现灾害对发展中国家冲击更大，不同类型灾害影响各异，严重灾害后果更重，且增长反应的时间因灾害类型和经济部门而异。
SUMMARY This paper traces the yearly response of gross domestic product growth—both aggregated and disaggregated into its agricultural and non‐agricultural components—to four types of natural disasters: droughts, floods, earthquakes, and storms. The paper uses a methodological approach based on pooling the experiences of various countries over time. It consists of vector autoregressions in the presence of endogenous variables and exogenous shocks (VARX), applied to a panel of cross‐country and time series data. The analysis finds heterogeneous effects on a variety of dimensions. First, the effects of natural disasters are stronger on developing than on advanced countries. Second, not all natural disasters are alike in terms of the growth response they induce, and some can even have positive effects on economic growth. Third, severe disasters often carry much worse effects than moderate effects do. Fourth, the timing of the growth response varies with both the type of natural disaster and the sector of economic activity. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.