The Effect of Cash Injections: Evidence from the 1980s Farm Debt Crisis
利用20世纪80年代农业债务危机中天气冲击导致的县级现金流入差异，研究发现现金流入显著影响土地价值、贷款违约率、银行倒闭概率、就业和工资，且对县级收入的乘数效应为1.63。
Abstract What is the effect of cash injections during financial crises? Exploiting county-level variation arising from random weather shocks during the 1980s Farm Debt Crisis, we analyze and measure the effect of local weather-driven cash flow shocks on the real and financial sectors. We show that such cash flow shocks significantly affect a host of economic outcomes, including land values, loan delinquency rates, the probability of bank failure, employment, and wages. Estimates of the effect of local cash flow shocks on county income levels during the financial crisis yield a multiplier of 1.63.