Heterogeneous Government Spending Multipliers in the Era Surrounding the Great Recession
利用美国各州的新季度数据，研究大衰退前后十年间相对支出乘数的动态变化，发现衰退期乘数远高于扩张期，且家庭债务水平会显著影响乘数大小，同时跨州支出再分配对整体经济有重要影响。
We use novel quarterly data of U.S. states to examine the dynamics of relative spending multipliers in the decade surrounding the Great Recession. While multipliers were around 1 in expansions, they reached values above 4 when a state was in a recession. Also a high (low) degree of household indebtedness augmented (lowered) a state's multiplier by 0.5 in expansions and 2 in recessions. We further document modest positive spillover effects across states and show that a mere redistribution of spending across states also had a significant influence on the aggregate U.S. economy due to cross-state heterogeneity of the effects.