Elementary modelling and behavioural analysis for emergency evacuations using social media
研究了在紧急疏散中如何利用社交媒体进行行为建模，通过贝叶斯算法推导最优逆向策略，为应急管理提供定量分析。
Social media usage in evacuations and emergency management represents a rapidly expanding field of study. Our paper thus provides quantitative insight into a serious practical problem. Within this context a behavioural approach is key. We discuss when facilitators should consider model-based interventions amid further implications for disaster communication and emergency management. We model the behaviour of individual people by deriving optimal contrarian strategies. We formulate a Bayesian algorithm which enables the optimal evacuation to be conducted sequentially under worsening conditions.