Animal Spirits, Financial Markets, and Aggregate Instability
研究动物精神（非基本面预期冲击）是否驱动美国商业周期波动，发现其解释了超过三分之一的产出波动，且比外生金融摩擦更重要。
Abstract This paper examines whether people's animal spirits were drivers of U.S. business cycle fluctuations. In the context of an estimated macroeconomy with endogenous financial market frictions, allowing for “psychological” or nonfundamental expectational shocks improves the fit of the model and, at the posterior mode, these shocks account for well over one‐third of output fluctuations. Exogenous financial frictions are considerably less important. U.S. data favor the indeterminacy model over versions of the economy in which animal spirits cannot play a role.