The Labor Market Effects of Refugee Waves: Reconciling Conflicting Results
本文解释了关于难民潮（如迈阿密马列尔偷渡事件）对劳动力市场影响的研究为何结论矛盾，指出问题源于样本中种族构成变化和工具变量的虚假相关，并证实移民对本土工人平均影响很小。
Studies have reached conflicting conclusions regarding the labor market effects of exogenous refugee waves such as the Mariel Boatlift in Miami. The authors show that contradictory findings on the effects of the Mariel Boatlift can be explained by a large difference in the pre- and post-Boatlift racial composition in certain very small subsamples of workers in the Current Population Survey. This compositional change is specific to Miami and unrelated to the Boatlift. They also show that conflicting findings on the labor market effects of other important refugee waves are caused by spurious correlation in some analyses between the instrument and the endogenous variable, introduced by applying a common divisor to both. As a whole, the evidence from refugee waves reinforces the existing consensus that the impact of immigration on average native-born workers is small, and it fails to substantiate claims of large detrimental effects on workers with less than a high school education.