Optimal fleet replacement: A case study on a Spanish urban transport fleet
本研究将生命周期成本工具与蒙特卡洛模拟结合，通过随机分析考虑车龄和年均里程，优化车队更新决策。案例应用于西班牙城市交通车队，结果表明随机模型比确定性模型更有效。
Abstract Optimizing the average annual cost of a bus fleet has become an increasing concern in transport companies management around the world. Nowadays, there are many tools available to assist managerial decisions, and one of the most used is the cost analysis of the life cycle of an asset, known as “life cycle cost”. Characterized by performing deterministic analysis of the situation, it allows the administration to evaluate the process of fleet replacement but is limited by not contemplating certain intrinsic variations related to vehicles and for disregarding variables related to exigencies of fleet use. The main purpose of this study is to develop a combined model of support to asset management based in the association of the life cycle cost tool and the mathematical model of Monte Carlo simulation, by performing a stochastic analysis considering both age and average annual mileage for optimum vehicle replacement. The utilized method was applied in a Spanish urban transport fleet, and the results indicate that the use of the stochastic model was more effective than the use of the deterministic model.