当风险变得怪异:未解释的交易特征降低估值

When Risk Is Weird: Unexplained Transaction Features Lower Valuations

Management Science · 2017
被引 12
人大 A+FT50UTD24ABS 4*

中文导读

研究发现,人们厌恶包含未解释特征的交易(如购买彩票),这种厌恶可能被误认为是风险厌恶;实验表明,增加未解释特征与增加风险同样降低支付意愿,且额外风险不再进一步降低估值。

Abstract

We define transactions as weird when they include unexplained features, that is, features not implicitly, explicitly, or self-evidently justified, and propose that people are averse to weird transactions. In six experiments, we show that risky options used in previous research paradigms often attained uncertainty via adding an unexplained transaction feature (e.g., purchasing a coin flip or lottery), and behavior that appears to reflect risk aversion could instead reflect an aversion to weird transactions. Specifically, willingness to pay drops just as much when adding risk to a transaction as when adding unexplained features. Holding transaction features constant, adding additional risk does not further reduce willingness to pay. We interpret our work as generalizing ambiguity aversion to riskless choice. The online supplement is available at https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.2017.2868 and http://osf.io/fzjuw . This paper was accepted by Yuval Rottenstreich, judgment and decision making.

怪异交易交易特征风险厌恶模糊厌恶