Estimating the price elasticity of fuel demand with stated preferences derived from a situational approach
该研究通过情境式陈述偏好调查，估计了超出历史观测范围的燃料价格变化（最高每升4欧元）的需求弹性，并验证了该方法能准确预测实际价格变化下的行为反应，适用于评估前所未有的政策干预或供给冲击。
An evidence-based policy debate about future fuel demand requires reliable estimates for fuel price elasticities. Such predictions are often based on revealed preference (RP) data. However, this procedure will only yield reliable results in the absence of severe structural discontinuities. In order to overcome this potential limitation we used a situational stated preference (SP) survey to estimate the response to hypothetical fuel price changes beyond the scope of previous observations. We elicit fuel price elasticities for price increases up to four Euros per liter and find that the situational approach predicts the actual responses to previously observed fuel price changes very well. We conclude that applying a situational approach is particularly useful, if behavioral predictions for unprecedented (non-monetary) policy interventions or supply side shocks are of interest that go beyond the reach of standard RP approaches.