The Market for Lemons in Serial Entrepreneurship: A Commentary
评论Nielsen和Sarasvathy关于连续创业中重启决策的I型和II型错误的研究，强调选择效应可能扭曲从经验中学习的结论，并指出过度自信之外还有信心不足的问题。
In their study “<i><a href="http://amd.aom.org/content/2/3/247.abstract">The Market for Lemons in Serial Entrepreneurship: Exploring Type I and Type II Errors in the Restart Decision</a></i>”, Nielsen and Sarasvathy (henceforth N&amp;S) address an important question with implications for both individual and societal wealth. What they ask is “Do ‘the right’ people choose to re-enter entrepreneurship after initial failure or success, or is there a risk that those who ‘ought to’ start another business refrain from doing so (Type I error) while those who had better refrain from it tend to try again (Type II error)?” They thereby highlight selection effects in the study or serial entrepreneurship, which if neglected can distort conclusions about learning from experience and its influence on future performance. They also highlight the possibility of “under confidence” whereas much entrepreneurship research has only considered the effects of possible over confidence. While they are not the very first to discuss either (cf. Chen 2013; Frey &amp; Heggli 1989; Jovanovic 1982) they bring the tenets together in an interesting way and explore their ideas using high quality, longitudinal data from a linked employer-employee data set.