Safety, Liquidity, and the Natural Rate of Interest
研究发现美国利率低主要是因为安全性和流动性溢价自1990年代末上升，经济增长放缓影响较小，对自然利率有启示。
Why are interest rates so low in the Unites States? We find that they are low primarily because the premium for safety and liquidity has increased since the late 1990s, and to a lesser extent because economic growth has slowed. We reach this conclusion using two complementary perspectives: a flexible time series model of trends in Treasury and corporate yields, inflation, and long-term survey expectations; and a medium-scale dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model. We discuss the implications of this finding for the natural rate of interest.