Regional Business Cycles Leads and Lags in Japan: Analyses by Prefectural Composite Indexes
利用四个月度经济指标构建日本县级综合指数，通过动态规划匹配算法分析各县级指数相对于全国指数的领先或滞后特征，发现区域差异存在但并非波动主因。
This paper investigates the unique characteristics of leads and lags in regional business cycles versus the national one by employing prefectural composite indexes (CI), which are constructed from four common monthly economic indicators. We utilize a dynamic programing matching algorithm in identifying leads and lags of each prefectural CI vis-à-vis the national CI. Performance of the matching analysis looks fairly good, yet certain disparities remain for some prefectures. While we confirm the presence of regional spottiness, we find that leads and lags in timing of the business cycle are not a major source of fluctuations in the prefectural CIs and there does not seem to be any specific pattern in observed leads and lags.