FORWARD GUIDANCE AND THE STATE OF THE ECONOMY
在非线性模型中分析零利率下限下前瞻指引的效果，发现其有效性取决于经济状态、复苏速度、不确定性、政策冲击大小和前瞻指引时长。
This paper analyzes forward guidance in a nonlinear model with a zero lower bound (ZLB) on the nominal interest rate. Forward guidance is modeled with news shocks to the monetary policy rule, which capture innovations in expectations from central bank communication about future policy rates. Whereas most studies use quasi‐linear models that disregard the expectational effects of hitting the ZLB, we show how the effectiveness of forward guidance nonlinearly depends on the state of the economy, the speed of the recovery, the degree of uncertainty, the policy shock size, and the forward guidance horizon when households account for the ZLB.