Currency Carry Trades: The Role of Macroeconomic News and Futures Market Speculation
研究了1999年至2012年主要货币对美元的利差交易机会，发现澳元和日元在非危机时期存在显著利差交易，且受宏观经济新闻和期货持仓影响。
This paper investigates carry trade opportunities in major currencies against the US dollar over the period January 2, 1999 to December 31, 2012. There is evidence of significant Australian dollar (AUD), Euro, and Japanese yen (JPY) carry trades during noncrisis periods. The AUD (JPY) was an investment (a funding) currency, and the Euro was both. However, cross currency carry trades were not present. For the AUD and JPY, carry trades were more likely with low volatility and volume. Macroeconomic news that appreciate (depreciate) the AUD (the JPY) also stimulated the AUD (the JPY) carry trades. However, there is no evidence of meaningful and consistent impact of macroeconomic news on the EUR carry trades. For weekly horizon investigations, net long futures positions in the AUD promoted carry trades in the AUD and JPY. However, net long positions in the JPY only managed to reduce JPY carry trade probability. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 36:1076–1107, 2016