Structural estimation of farmers’ risk and ambiguity preferences: a field experiment
通过实地实验收集197名法国农民的数据，用累积前景理论和多先验模型分别估计其风险与模糊偏好，发现农民同时厌恶风险、模糊和损失，且概率扭曲在收益与损失、风险与模糊情境下不同。
The distinction between risk, where agents assign well-defined probabilities to possible outcomes, and ambiguity, where agents do not, has long been of particular interest. Using a carefully designed field experiment, we elicit information about risk and ambiguity preferences among 197 French farmers and structurally estimate these preferences. We use cumulative prospect theory and a multiple-prior model in order to model risk and ambiguity preferences, respectively. We find that farmers are risk, ambiguity and loss averse, and that probability distortion differs in gains vs. losses, as well as in risk vs. ambiguity. These findings can have important implications for policy design.