Foreclosure Contagion and the Neighborhood Spillover Effects of Mortgage Defaults
利用可调利率抵押贷款合同中的行政细节识别利率冲击，发现利率上升1个百分点使次年止赎概率增加2.5%，且每起止赎申请在0.1英里半径内引发0.3至0.6起额外止赎。
ABSTRACT In this paper, I identify shocks to interest rates resulting from two administrative details in adjustable‐rate mortgage contract terms: the choice of financial index and the choice of lookback period. I find that a 1 percentage point increase in interest rate at the time of adjustable‐rate mortgage (ARM) reset results in a 2.5 percentage increase in the probability of foreclosure in the following year, and that each foreclosure filing leads to an additional 0.3 to 0.6 completed foreclosures within a 0.10‐mile radius. In explaining this result, I emphasize price effects, bank‐supply responses, and borrower responses arising from peer effects.