Financial intermediaries’ instability and euro area macroeconomic dynamics
通过拟合马尔可夫转换结构向量自回归模型到欧元区数据，发现金融困境时期（如大衰退和主权债务危机）的传导机制变化，金融中介中断是经济波动主因，且欧洲央行干预有积极效果。
Fitting a Markov-switching structural vector autoregression to euro area data, we show that, after taking into account heteroskedasticity, the differences in the behavior of the economy between tranquil and financial distress periods (e.g., Great Recession and sovereign debt crisis) reflect variations in the transmission mechanism. When and only when a period of financial distress occurs, disruptions in financial intermediation trigger adverse effects for the real economy and turn out to be the primary source of business cycle fluctuations. Finally, we provide strong evidence that ECB interventions in the financial sector had beneficial effects on the real economy during the sovereign debt crisis.