The cosmopolitan-parochial divide: changing patterns of party and electoral competition in the Netherlands and beyond
本文利用专家和选民数据，论证荷兰政党与选举竞争日益呈现经济左右和世界主义-地方主义双重分野，后者独立于经济维度并影响投票决策，且源于经济不安全感而非文化反弹，为理解欧洲政治变迁提供新视角。
Recent election outcomes in Europe and beyond reflect a growing scepticism of open borders among the public. From the Brexit vote in the United Kingdom to the election of Donald Trump in the United States, rhetoric that is critical of the organizations facilitating policy co-operation and learning across borders as well as international trade and migration is popular among a growing segment of the electorate. Are these recent developments part of a larger trend of party and electoral change? By focusing on changing patterns in party and electoral competition in the Netherlands, this article suggests that they are. Relying on expert and voter data, it argues that party and electoral politics in the Netherlands are increasingly characterized by both an economic left–right as well as a cosmopolitan–parochial divide. While the former relates to issues of state intervention into the economy, the second refers to stances on European integration, migration and national control in international affairs. This cosmopolitan–parochial divide has become largely independent of the economic left–right dimension, and influences people’s voting decisions independently of their left–right views. Interestingly, the cosmopolitan–parochial divide in the Netherlands should not necessarily be understood as a cultural backlash, but rather seems a reflection of increased economic insecurity. Although the evidence stems from the Dutch case, I suggest that the cosmopolitan–parochial divide is a useful lens through which we can understand political change in Europe more generally.