Outsiders' Response to EC'92
本文检验了奥地利作为非欧共体国家对1993年欧洲单一市场生效的反应假说，分析了外国直接投资的区域分布和行业差异，发现1988年后投资趋势因预防性行动而改变。
INTRODUCTION In the beginning of 1993 the European Single Market has come into effect. This raises the question on the response of outsider countries, because their relative access cost increase and hence their competitive position deteriorates vis a vis insider firms. A bulk of theoretical literature has emerged recently on the subject with special interest in the EC Single Market project (e.g. Acoccella 1990, Cantwell 1992, Eliasson, Lundberg 1989, UNCTC 1990, Heitger, Stehn 1990, Erbe et al. 1991, Rugman, Verbeke 1991, Graham 1992, Greenaway 1993: 131ff). Few empirical testing has, however, emerged on the subject (e.g. Hirsch, Almor 1992, Oxelheim, Braunerhjelm 1992). The purpose of this paper is to test hypotheses on outsider response for Austria. Austria has been member of EFTA since 1960 and with neighboring Germany--member of EC--as its main trading partner, is heavily affected by the EC Single Market project. The paper consists of five subsections. After a short review of the theoretical background, hypotheses are derived. In the following sections data and results are presented. There is a short concluding section. THEORETICAL BACKGROUND Two sets of hypotheses are presented by Hirsch, Almor (1992) on outsider response. The first group of hypotheses assesses the regional distribution of foreign direct investment (FDI) of outsider firms in the integrated market. This investment-diversion effect is based on the assumption that the relative competitive position of outsiders deteriorates relative to insiders due to barriers to entry. In particular they discuss the effect of the Single Market on FDI flows to EC. By engaging in defensive import-substituting FDI, outsiders may overcome relatively higher cost of exporting by producing inside the integrated region. The second group comprises hypotheses on the conduct of firms in different industries, namely the Schumpeter-(S) and Heckscher-Ohlin-(H) industries. H-products are characterized by production technology which is publicly available, while S-products are based on firm-specific knowledge. The unique technology as well as the high service-intensity of S-products involve high transaction cost. Therefore, unlike H-products, S-products will be internalized (e.g. vertical integration) into the firm and hence not sold through markets (e.g. independent sales agents). A third set of hypotheses was added by Oxelheim, Braunerhjelm (1992) suggesting that FDI substitute for gross domestic investment (GDI), even more so in S-industries. Since export cost of outsiders increase relatively and exports are substituted by FDI, foreign investment is expected to increasingly replace the export-related domestic investment. Even more so in the case of a small and eo ipso trade-dependent economy like Austria. Since the Single Market was planned already in 1987 to come into effect in 1992, we expect a changing trend in FDI due to pre-emptive moves of firms from 1988 onwards. DATA The period covered is 1984-91. Data were deflated by 1984 prices. Industry data have been normalized by domestic employment. FDI data are obtained from the Central Bank statistics (OeNB, various years). FDI in EC on an industry level are measured in nominal capital only. The Austrian definition of FDI is according to the IMF Balance of Payments Manual and the OECD Detailed Benchmark Definition of Foreign Direct Investment. Austrian Foreign Direct Investment abroad is defined as investment that involves a long-term relationship reflecting a lasting interest of a resident entity in an entity resident abroad, the direct investor's purpose being to exert a significant degree of influence on the management of the enterprise resident abroad. A direct investment enterprise is defined as an incorporated or unincorporated enterprise in which a foreign investor owns 10 per cent or more of the ordinary shares or voting power and a share of at least 1 million ATS of the nominal capital of that enterprise. …