Could the Boom‐Bust in the Eurozone Periphery Have Been Prevented?
本文通过DSGE模型和历史反事实实验，检验货币政策和宏观审慎政策能否防止欧元区外围国家在采用欧元后的剧烈繁荣-萧条周期，发现单一货币政策能稳定产出但无法稳定住房市场和贸易平衡，而区域特定的宏观审慎政策能显著平滑信贷周期并减少外部失衡。
Abstract Boom‐bust cycles in the eurozone periphery almost toppled the single currency and recent experience suggests that they may return soon. We check whether monetary or macroprudential policy could have prevented the periphery's violent boom and bust after the euro adoption. We estimate a DSGE model for the two euro area regions, core and periphery, and conduct a series of historical counterfactual experiments in which monetary and macroprudential policy follow optimized rules that use area‐wide welfare as the criterion. We show that single monetary policy could have better stabilized output in both regions, but not the housing market or the periphery's trade balance. In contrast, region‐specific macroprudential policy could have substantially smoothed the credit cycle in the periphery and reduced the build‐up of external imbalances.