Labour Market Attachment Following Major Workforce Downsizings: A Comparison of Displaced and Retained Workers
利用芬兰雇主-雇员数据，比较大规模裁员后被解雇和留任工人七年的劳动力市场依附情况，发现两者长期结果差异不大，但被解雇者短期失业风险更高。
In plant downsizings, attention tends to be paid to displaced workers, while the retained are considered ‘fortunate survivors’. Exploiting a comprehensive Finnish employee-employer dataset, this study examines both displaced and retained workers and compares their seven-year labour market attachment after downsizing. Advanced statistics, including trajectory analysis, are used to identify groups characterized by ‘immediately weakening’, ‘gradually weakening’ and ‘strong’ employment. Workers displaced in major downsizings have a significantly higher risk of immediately weakening employment than those retained. Sequence analyses were performed for those on weakening employment trajectories and it was found that the pathway ‘unemployment – unemployment pension – old age pension’ was quite common among displaced workers but also among those retained. The results support the segmentation theory hypothesis of a dualism in outcomes, but surprisingly there is little difference in the labour market outcomes of retained and displaced workers in the long run.