Dutch Disease Resistance: Evidence from Indonesian Firms
利用油气发现和价格波动带来的外生冲击，研究油气横财对印度尼西亚制造业企业的影响，发现平均而言工资、劳动生产率、产出和就业上升，但产品单价和退出率不变，且低生产率企业更可能退出，幸存者产出和生产率扩张较大。
Oil and gas windfalls may lead to the Dutch disease, that is, the crowding out of the manufacturing sector due to rising wages when labor is drawn to the expanding sectors. In this paper, we exploit the fact that oil and gas discoveries contain an element of luck as well as oil price fluctuations to capture exogenous variation in oil and gas windfalls across Indonesia and identify their effects on manufacturing firms. We find that oil and gas windfalls on average cause wages as well as firms’ labor productivity, output, and employment to increase, while product unit values and exit rates are unaffected. Heterogeneity analysis reveals that the least productive firms are more likely to exit, and surviving low-productivity firms see relatively large expansions in output and labor productivity, while high-productivity firms see relatively high expansions in employment.