Agricultural Trade Liberalisation in the 21st Century: Has It Done the Business?
基于2001年以来农业关税的详细数据库，分析了多边体系、单边行动和区域贸易协定对农业贸易自由化的实际贡献，发现自由化主要发生在WTO和区域协定之外。
Abstract Based on a novel, detailed, time‐consistent tariff database taking account of import protection developments in the agricultural sector since 2001, we propose a statistical decomposition of the changes in the various types of tariffs. The results show that the multilateral system has played a limited role in trade liberalisation over the period. Many countries have continued to apply much lower tariffs on agricultural products than their WTO ceilings. Moreover, there has been substantial unilateral dismantling of tariffs over the period, so that much of the liberalisation took place outside WTO and regional agreements. The number of regional trade agreements has surged, but their impact on applied agricultural tariffs has been limited. Finally, we investigate the tariffs, trade and production implications for food and agricultural products of two extreme scenarios in the future development of trade negotiations: an ambitious surge of regional agreements and a trade war within the WTO context.