Effects of Macroeconomic Uncertainty and Labor Demand Shocks on the Housing Market
研究发现宏观经济不确定性冲击会显著降低房价（降幅约1.4%-1.8%），但对交易量影响不显著；且不确定性对住房市场的影响强于当地劳动力需求冲击，在高房价波动州效果更明显。
Abstract This article shows that macroeconomic uncertainty affects the housing market in two significant ways. First, uncertainty shocks adversely affect housing prices but not the quantities that are traded. Controlling for a broad set of variables in fixed‐effects regressions, we find that uncertainty shocks reduce both housing prices and median sales prices in the amount of 1.4% and 1.8%, respectively, but the effect is not statistically significant for the percentage changes of all homes sold. Second, when both uncertainty and local demand shocks are introduced, the effects of uncertainty on the housing market dominate that of local labor demand shocks on housing prices, median sale prices, the share of houses selling for a loss and transactions. The aforementioned effects are largest for the states that exhibit relatively high housing price volatilities, suggesting real options effects in the housing market during the times of high uncertainty.