Juvenile Punishment, High School Graduation, and Adult Crime: Evidence from Idiosyncratic Judge Harshness
利用美国某州行政数据，通过法官随机分配案件来估计少年监禁对高中毕业和成人再犯的因果效应，发现少年监禁增加了成人毒品犯罪定罪概率，降低了财产犯罪定罪概率，并对早期队列的高中毕业有负面影响。
Abstract This paper contributes to the debate on the impact of juvenile crime punishment on high school completion and adult recidivism using administrative data from a southern U.S. state. We exploit random assignment of cases to judges and use idiosyncratic judge stringency in imprisonment to estimate the causal effect of incarceration. We find that juvenile incarceration increases the propensity of being convicted for a drug offense in adulthood while it lowers the propensity to be convicted of a property crime. Juvenile incarceration has also a detrimental effect on high school completion for earlier cohorts, but it has no impact on later cohorts.