Long‐term Effects of Fiscal Stimulus and Austerity in Europe
基于叙事识别方法，估计财政冲击对潜在产出的影响，发现欧洲国家在金融危机后低估了乘数效应及其持续性，认为紧缩政策时机不当，加剧了危机并可能造成不可逆的滞后效应。
Abstract We analyze whether there are ne gative (positive) long‐term effects of austerity measures (stimulus measures) on potential output growth. Based on the approach of Blanchard and Leigh ( ) and Fatás and Summers ( ) and using a novel data set of narratively identified fiscal policy shocks, we estimate the impact of these shocks on potential output. We robustly find a considerable underestimation of multiplier effects and their persistence for most European countries in the early years after the financial crisis and subsequent Euro Area crisis. We conclude that fiscal consolidation was badly timed and thus not only deepened the crisis but may have caused evitable hysteresis effects.