Extracting and Analyzing the Warming Trend in Global and Hemispheric Temperatures
基于最新温度和强迫数据集，研究发现气温和辐射强迫变量存在共同非线性趋势和结构突变，人为辐射强迫主导了长期变暖，而自然变率和数据调整只是掩盖了当前变暖减缓（hiatus）的存在，并非其原因。
This article offers an updated and extended attribution analysis based on recently published versions of temperature and forcing datasets. It shows that both temperature and radiative forcing variables can be best represented as trend stationary processes with structural changes occurring in the slope of their trend functions and that they share a common secular trend and common breaks, largely determined by the anthropogenic radiative forcing. The common nonlinear trend is isolated, and further evidence on the possible causes of the current slowdown in warming is presented. Our analysis offers interesting results in relation to the recent literature. Changes in the anthropogenic forcings are directly responsible for the hiatus, while natural variability modes such as the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, as well as new temperature adjustments, contribute to weaken the signal. In other words, natural variability and data adjustments do not explain in any way the hiatus; they simply mask its presence.