The Cyclical Sensitivity in Estimates of Potential Output
研究发现，美国等国的潜在产出估计不仅对供给冲击有反应，也会对只有暂时影响的需方冲击做出缓慢调整，因此不能仅凭潜在产出修正判断实际产出变化是否持久。
The fact that most of the persistent declines in output since the Great Recession have parlayed into equivalent declines in measures of potential output is commonly interpreted as implying that output will not return to previous trends. Using a variety of estimates of potential output for the U.S. and other countries, we show that these estimates respond gradually not only to supply-side shocks but also respond to demand shocks that have only transitory effects on output. Observing a revision in measures of potential output therefore says little about whether concurrent changes in actual output are likely to be permanent or not. In contrast, some structural VAR methodologies can avoid these shortcomings, even in real-time. These approaches point toward a more limited decline in potential output following the Great Recession.