Presenting Uncertainty in Health Risk Assessment: Initial Studies of Its Effects on Risk Perception and Trust.
通过模拟新闻故事和问卷调查，研究了在健康风险评估中简单呈现不确定性（如风险估计范围）对公众风险感知和对评估机构信任的影响，发现不确定性可能同时传递诚实和无能的信号。
Some analysts suggest that discussing uncertainties in health risk assessments might reduce citizens' perceptions of risk and increase their respect for the risk-assessing agency. We tested this assumption with simulated news stories varying simple displays of uncertainty (e.g., a range of risk estimates, with and without graphics). Subjects from Eugene, Oregon, read one story each, and then answered a questionnaire. Three studies tested between 180 and 272 subjects each. Two focus groups obtained more detailed responses to these stories. The results suggested that (1) people are unfamiliar with uncertainty in risk assessments and in science; (2) people may recognize uncertainty when it is presented simply; (3) graphics may help people recognize uncertainty; (4) reactions to the environmental problems in the stories seemed affected less by presentation of uncertainty than by general risk attitudes and perceptions; (5) agency discussion of uncertainty in risk estimates may signal agency honesty and agency incompetence for some people; and (6) people seem to see lower risk estimates (10(-6), as opposed to 10(-3)) as less credible. These findings, if confirmed, would have important implications for risk communication.