Housing Market Dynamics: On the Contribution of Income Shocks and Credit Constraints*
构建了一个生命周期模型，分析收入冲击和首付约束如何影响住房价格和交易量，解释了房价过度反应和信贷放松引发繁荣-萧条周期的现象，对理解美英住房市场波动有参考价值。
This paper presents a dynamic theory of housing market fluctuations. It develops a life-cycle model where households are heterogeneous with respect to income and preferences, and mortgage lending is restricted by a down-payment requirement. the market interaction of young credit-constrained households with order or richer unconstrained households generates the following results. (1) Current income of young credit-constrained households affects housing prices independently of aggregate income. (2) Housing prices and the number of housing transactions are positively correlated. (3) Housing prices over-react to income shocks. (4) A relaxation of the down-payment constraint triggers a boom-but cycle. These results are consistent with patterns observed in the US and the UK.