Explaining Disagreement on Interest Rates in a Taylor‐Rule Setting
利用专业预测者和消费者的调查微观数据，研究发现利率分歧主要由通胀分歧驱动，且受央行透明度及货币信贷新闻显著影响。
Abstract Most studies on disagreement focus on one specific variable, thereby neglecting the fact that disagreement can be co‐moving with disagreement on other variables. In this paper, we explore to what extent disagreement regarding the interest rate is driven by disagreement on inflation and unemployment. This relationship can be motivated by the theoretical concept of the Taylor rule. Using survey microdata for both professional forecasters and consumers, we provide evidence that disagreement on the interest rate is mainly driven by disagreement on inflation. We further show that disagreement is significantly influenced by central bank transparency, as well as news on money and credit conditions.