Predictors of Intention to Travel to Cuba across Three Time Horizons: An Application of the Theory of Planned Behavior
基于计划行为理论，研究美国居民在1年、5年和10年三个时间跨度下前往古巴旅游意向的预测因素，发现短期负面态度反而促进旅游意向，对旅游组织有参考价值。
As the relationship between Cuba and the United States evolves, many Americans are entertaining the idea of travel to Cuba. This study used the Theory of Planned Behavior (TPB) to examine predictors of US residents’ intentions to travel to Cuba across three time horizons: 1 year, 5 years, and 10 years. TPB constructs were administered to a cross-sectional panel of US residents. Results varied by time horizon, with US residents’ negative attitudes toward Cuba having a positive and significant influence on their intention to visit Cuba within one year. This finding suggests that some US residents match Plog’s Allocentric profile of tourists and that the current “rough edges” of Cuba are what attract them to travel in the short rather than long term. Findings from this study provide baseline data that is valuable for Cuban and American tourism organizations, should the US market become more accessible.