The Minimum Wage
运用宏观经济学和金融学常用的时间序列分析与系统估计技术，考察1947-1997年美国联邦最低工资上调对低工资行业工资和就业的影响，发现工资上升但就业效应不显著。
AbstractDo moderate increases in the minimum wage reduce employment? If not, do they nevertheless raise wages? To examine these questions, we apply techniques of time series analysis and systems estimation that are commonly used in macroeconomics and finance to five panels of data that contain between 11 and 34 low-wage industries. Our answers are "No" and "Yes," respectively. We find that increases in the federal minimum wage between 1947 and 1997 have raised average wages in many of these industries, especially the lowest wage ones. The effect on employment, however, is mixed and typically nonsignificant, even when average wages have risen.KEY WORDS: EmploymentSystems estimationTime series analysisWages