FISCAL RULES AND GOVERNMENT BORROWING COSTS: INTERNATIONAL EVIDENCE
研究了101个发达国家和发展中国家在1985-2010年间采用数值型财政规则对政府借贷成本的影响，发现财政规则能显著降低国内外金融市场的借贷成本，主要通过降低违约概率和风险溢价实现。
We find that the adoption of numerical fiscal rules reduces government borrowing costs in a sample of 101 advanced and developing countries for 1985–2010. We apply a variety of propensity score matching methods to address the self‐selection problem of policy adoption and find strong evidence that fiscal rules have large and significant treatment effects on lowering government borrowing costs in both international and domestic financial markets. The results are robust to changes in country sample and alternative estimation methodology, and are consistent with fiscal rules helping to build policy credibility by reducing the probability of default and the “risk premium” on government debt that compensates lenders for this possibility.