The Housing Boom and Bust: Model Meets Evidence
构建美国经济模型，研究大衰退前后住房市场的繁荣与萧条，发现信念转变是房价和租金波动的主因，房价波动通过财富效应解释了非耐用品支出的一半变化，而大规模债务减免对房价和支出影响有限但能减少止赎并小幅提振消费。
We build a model of the US economy with multiple aggregate shocks that generate fluctuations in equilibrium house prices. Through counterfactual experiments, we study the housing boom-bust around the Great Recession, with three main results. First, the main driver of movements in house prices and rents was a shift in beliefs, not a change in credit conditions. Second, the boom-bust in house prices explains half of the corresponding swings in nondurable expenditures through a wealth effect. Third, a large-scale debt forgiveness program would have done little to temper the collapse of house prices and expenditures but would have dramatically reduced foreclosures and induced a small, but persistent, increase in consumption during the recovery.