Adapting to the Weather: Lessons from U.S. History
利用美国1860-2000年的历史数据，研究天气变化对农业和个人生产力的影响，发现早期高温多雨影响显著，但近几十年影响减弱，提示短期估计难以预测长期气候变化影响。
An important unknown in understanding the impact of climate change is the scope of adaptation, which requires observations on historical time scales. We consider how weather across U.S. history (1860-2000) has affected various measures of productivity. Using cross-sectional and panel methods, we document significant responses of agricultural and individual productivity to weather. We find strong effects of hotter and wetter weather early in U.S. history, but these effects have been attenuated in recent decades. The results suggest that estimates from a given period may be of limited use in forecasting the longer-term impacts of climate change.