Real Exchange Rates, Income per Capita, and Sectoral Input Shares
研究发现,各国总体价格水平与人均GDP正相关,机制在于可贸易部门更密集使用中间投入品,导致随着生产率和收入增长,非贸易品相对价格上升;该机制解释了约一半的总体价格水平对人均GDP的弹性,并对行业实际汇率有重要含义。
Aggregate price levels are positively related to GDP per capita across countries. We propose a mechanism that rationalizes this observation through sectoral differences in intermediate input shares. As productivity and income grow, so do wages relative to intermediate input prices, which increases the relative price of nontradables if tradable sectors use intermediate inputs more intensively. We show that sectoral differences in input intensities can account for about half of the observed elasticity of the aggregate price level with respect to GDP per capita. The mechanism has stark implications for industry-level real exchange rates that are strongly supported by the data.