BUSINESS CYCLES IN SMALL OPEN ECONOMIES: EVIDENCE FROM PANEL DATA BETWEEN 1900 AND 2013
利用17个国家1900-2013年的数据，研究发现金融摩擦和趋势生产率冲击对小型发达和发展中经济体的商业周期都很重要，共同冲击解释了三分之一的波动。
Using a novel data set for 17 countries between 1900 and 2013, we characterize business cycles in both small developed and developing countries in a model with financial frictions and a common shock structure. We estimate the model jointly for these 17 countries using Bayesian methods. We find that financial frictions are an important feature for not only developing but also small developed countries. Furthermore, business cycles in both groups of countries are marked with trend productivity shocks. Common disturbances explain one third of the fluctuations in small open economies, especially during important worldwide phenomena.