Policy Uncertainty, Trade, and Welfare: Theory and Evidence for China and the United States
研究政策不确定性如何通过企业进入投资影响贸易、价格和实际收入，发现中国加入WTO后美国贸易战威胁的降低解释了2000-2005年间中国对美出口增长的三分之一以上，并相当于永久性降低13个百分点的关税对消费者收入的提升。
We examine the impact of policy uncertainty on trade, prices, and real income through firm entry investments in general equilibrium. We estimate and quantify the impact of trade policy on China's export boom to the United States following its 2001 WTO accession. We find the accession reduced the US threat of a trade war, which can account for over one-third of that export growth in the period 2000– 2005. Reduced policy uncertainty lowered US prices and increased its consumers' income by the equivalent of a 13-percentage-point permanent tariff decrease. These findings provide evidence of large effects of policy uncertainty on economic activity and the importance of agreements for reducing it.