对Jewson和French的回应:关于Duckworth-Lewis-Stern方法的评论

Response to Jewson & French: ‘A comment on the Duckworth–Lewis–Stern method’

Journal of the Operational Research Society · 2017
被引 0
ABS 3

中文导读

本文回应了对DLS方法的评论,通过分析女子国际比赛数据,证实了该方法在不同级别比赛中均适用,为赛事组织者和统计学家提供了依据。

Abstract

[Extract]<br/>Let me start by heartily thanking the authors for their careful consideration of DLS and its application. I have, of course, always wondered how well the DL methodology, built as it is on international data, mimicked scoring patterns in national competitions (and even district and club leagues, where the method is now being utilised in many places). One of the main premises of the methodology is that scoring patterns are governed by a reasonably consistent risk–reward trade-off more than by overall run rates (at least until such rates become extreme), and thus it should in theory be applicable at most levels of the game, but seeing that confirmed in the data of competitions other than the international ones is a pleasure to read. Indeed, I was recently fortunate enough to gain access to a large database of ball-by-ball outcomes for women’s international matches and was able to confirm there as well that while overall totals were obviously lower, scoring patterns in terms of resource usage were essentially identical to those in the men’s international game, making use of a common DLS version not just expedient, but also justifiable and appropriate.

运筹学体育统计决策科学应用数学