Dynamic risk assessment of complex systems using FCM
针对现有风险分析工具无法处理复杂系统内风险交互的问题，提出一种基于模糊认知图的集成决策支持工具，用于动态评估风险、排序风险因素并预测其相互影响，帮助从业者更高效地管理风险。
Analysing risk of today’s complex systems is challenging due to the complex and dynamic nature of systems. The current risk analysis tools are not able to take the complex interactions among risks into account and therefore they can’t predict the behaviour of risks accurately. In an attempt to overcome this shortcoming, this paper proposes an integrated generalised decision support tool using fuzzy cognitive maps for dynamic risk assessment of complex systems. The proposed approach has the ability to prioritise risk factors and more importantly predict and analysis the influences of each individual risk factor/risk set on the other risks or on the outcomes of complex and critical systems by taking into account probability of occurrence and consequences of risks and also considering the complex dependencies between risk factors. These features could provide practitioners with realistic results in critical industries and able them to manage risks more efficiently.