The Economics of the Climate
评述了气候问题的经济特征，包括存量外部性下的贴现率选择、风险与不确定性，以及综合评估模型（IAM）在政策分析中的作用，指出IAM更适合定性理解而非定量预测，并强调基于风险厌恶和模糊厌恶采取行动的必要性。
I review the economic characteristics of the climate problem, focusing on the choice of discount rates in the presence of a stock externality, risk and uncertainty/ambiguity, and the role of integrated assessment models (IAMs) in analyzing policy choices. I suggest that IAMs can play a role in providing qualitative understanding of how complex systems behave, but are not accurate enough to provide quantitative insights. Arguments in favor of action on climate issues have to be based on aversion to risk and ambiguity and the need to avoid a small but positive risk of a disastrous outcome.