Regional economic modelling through an embedded econometric–inter-industry framework
提出一种将投入产出分析嵌入时间序列模型的交叉部门需求变量技术,用于研究澳大利亚伊拉瓦拉地区经济,该动态模型能高精度预测部门就业。
After the incorporation of an inter-industry analysis into an econometric framework was pioneered 40 years ago, there has been a growing number of studies in the literature focused on applying such an integrated framework at the subnational level. Models in the literature apply different strategies and structures to merge input–output (IO) and econometric models. The objective of the merged framework is to capitalize on the merits of both IO and time-series models. This paper presents an attempt to apply an intersectoral demand variable (ISDV) technique to embed IO analysis into a time-series model to investigate the economy of Illawarra in New South Wales, Australia. The result is a dynamic intersectoral model that provides high accuracy in forecasting sectoral employment.