How Do Expectations about the Macroeconomy Affect Personal Expectations and Behavior?
利用美国代表性在线面板数据，通过向受访者提供不同的专业衰退预测，研究宏观经济预期的外生变化如何影响个人经济前景预期、消费计划和股票购买行为。
Using a representative online panel from the United States, we examine how individuals' macroeconomic expectations causally affect their personal economic prospects and their behavior. To exogenously vary respondents' expectations, we provide them with different professional forecasts about the likelihood of a recession. Respondents update their macroeconomic outlook in response to the forecasts, extrapolate to expectations about their personal economic circumstances, and adjust their consumption plans and stock purchases. Extrapolation to expectations about personal unemployment is driven by individuals with higher exposure to macroeconomic risk, consistent with macroeconomic models of imperfect information in which people are inattentive but understand how the economy works.