Who Migrates and Why? Evidence from Italian Administrative Data
利用意大利20年行政面板数据，研究发现从南到北的移民能力分布偏下，因为北方对能力的回报更低；工资和就业率各贡献约一半迁移收益，回迁移民强化了负向选择。
We use 20 years of Italian administrative panel data to identify the role of ability in migration from south to north. Using a novel iterative estimation method for a switching regression model with the same worker-specific source of unobserved heterogeneity in selection and outcome equations, we find that returns to ability are lower in the north than the south. Accordingly, migrants are drawn from the lower half of the ability distribution. Higher wages and employment rates each account for around half the gains from migration. Return migration reinforces the original negative selection of migrants, consistent with migrants facing considerable uncertainty.