Industrial growth in interwar Egypt: first estimates, new insights
基于首次估算的产出增长数据，本文发现埃及工业在两次世界大战期间加速增长，大萧条后加入工业追赶俱乐部，并揭示关税保护对增长的推动作用远小于历史文献通常假设。
Based on the first estimates of output growth, this article shows that Egyptian industrial output grew at an accelerating rate in the interwar period and the country joined the industrial catch-up club after the Great Depression. What characterized the industrial re-composition was the major shift from export-processing and home-demand oriented sectors to the import competing textiles. That was in turn driven by the combined forces of massive terms of trade shock, tariff protection and stagnant incomes. Crucially, the panel-data analysis of disaggregated growth patterns indicates that the effect of tariff protection on growth was much smaller than usually assumed in the historiography.