Scenario-based portfolio model for building robust and proactive strategies
开发了一个投资组合模型，在情景概率信息不完整且可能依赖于所选行动时，支持选择战略行动，帮助构建稳健且主动的战略，并通过北欧钢铁工程公司的平台生态系统战略案例验证。
In order to address major changes in the operational environment, companies can (i) define scenarios that characterize different alternatives for this environment, (ii) assign probabilities to these scenarios, (iii) evaluate the performance of strategic actions across the scenarios, and (iv) choose those actions that are expected to perform best. In this paper, we develop a portfolio model to support the selection of such strategic actions when the information about scenario probabilities is possibly incomplete and may depend on the selected actions. This model helps build a strategy that is robust in that it performs relatively well in view of all available probability information, and proactive in that it can help steer the future as reflected by the scenarios toward the desired direction. We also report a case study in which the model helped a group of Nordic, globally operating steel and engineering companies build a platform ecosystem strategy that accounts for uncertainties related to markets, politics, and technological development.