The Cyclicality of Sales, Regular, and Effective Prices: Business Cycle and Policy Implications: Comment
评论了Coibion等人(2015)关于CPI低估经济衰退期间消费者价格减速的观点,指出其结论依赖于非标准的方法选择,并在更优方法下发现消费者在经济衰退期间更多转向低价商店的现象并不显著。
Coibion, Gorodnichenko, and Hong (2015) argue that the CPI underestimates the deceleration in consumer prices during economic downturns because the index fails to account for the reallocation of consumer spending from high-price to low-price stores. We show that their conclusion hinges on some nonstandard methodological choices, including an aggressive censoring of price adjustments and a treatment for missing observations that can leave out some of the price variation. Under our preferred methodology, the regression results no longer indicate that greater store switching during downturns is a statistically or economically significant phenomenon.