The wisdom of the crowd in dynamic economies
研究了金融市场中群体智慧与市场选择理论的矛盾,发现当投资者从均衡价格中学习时,市场参与能提升个体准确度,使价格比最准的个体更准。
The wisdom of the crowd applied to financial markets asserts that prices represent a consensus belief that is more accurate than individual beliefs. However, a market selection argument implies that prices eventually reflect only the beliefs of the most accurate agent. In this paper, we show how to reconcile these alternative points of view. In markets in which agents naively learn from equilibrium prices, a dynamic wisdom of the crowd holds. Market participation increases agents' accuracy, and equilibrium prices are more accurate than the most accurate agent.